Flood risk assessment under climate change in Southeast Vietnam

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Abstract

Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by flood risk and climate change. Accurate flood-risk assessment is crucial for effective urban planning and disaster management. This study used an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in combination with a geographical information system (GIS) environment to evaluate the present and future flood risks in the Southeast region of Vietnam and mapped the results. Thirteen flood causative factors were considered and weighed, including the elevation, slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), flow accumulation, topographic wetness index (TWI), distance to rivers, land use and land cover (LULC), precipitation during the wettest month, drainage density, road density, distance to the coastline, soil type, and population density. The weighted overlay technique from the spatial analysis tools of ArcGIS was used to prepare flood-risk maps. For the year 2050, spatial (LULC) and temporal (climate) changes were considered to predict the flood risk. The flood-risk maps were categorized into five classes: very low, low, medium, high, and very high. Policymakers can use the obtained results to develop more appropriate mitigation measures and strategies to effectively manage flood risks and ensure sustainable socio-economic sustainability.