Short-Term Forecast Inland Cruise Passenger Demand in the Republic of Serbia
Keywords:
Cruise tourism demand, Short-term forecast, SARIMA, SARIMAXAbstract
Forecasting cruise traffic is vital for industry stakeholders seeking to manage port infrastructure, marketing strategies, and service offerings effectively. Unlike other transportation modes, cruise tourism presents unique forecasting challenges due to its dependence on seasonal patterns, destination attractiveness, economic conditions, and geopolitical influences. In this study, we apply seasonal ARIMA and ARIMAX models to forecast cruise passenger demand in Serbia. Models were fitted using the Box–Jenkins methodology, with a Box–Cox transformation applied to stabilize the variance, and comprehensive residual diagnostics were used to ensure robust model specification. The results show that incorporating Germany’s GDP substantially improves both model fit and forecast accuracy, while temperature‑based regressors introduce noise rather than explanatory or predictive value. These findings indicate that the proposed methodology is effective and that seasonal ARIMA and ARIMAX models are useful predictors of cruise tourism demand.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ivana Jovanović, Ivana Vukićević Biševac
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Scientific Journal of Maritime Research understands the need for authors to disseminate and maximize the impact of their research. When submitting an article for publishing in Scientific Journal of Maritime Research, it implies that the Corresponding Author transfers, with the consent of all Coauthors, the copyright ownership in the referenced submission, including all versions in any format now known or hereafter developed, to the Scientific Journal of Maritime Research.
Copyright protects your original work and research material and prevents others from using it without your permission. Others will be required to credit you and your work properly, thus increasing its impact. Should your submission be rejected or withdrawn prior to acceptance for publication by Scientific Journal of Maritime Research, this transfer will be null and void.
Authors, users or readers of an article need clear instructions on how they can use the article. Scientific Journal of Maritime Research uses the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND) 4.0 International License, which governs the use, publishing and distribution of articles by authors, publishers and the wider general public.
The authors are allowed to post a digital file of the published article, or the link to the published article (Scientific Journal of Maritime Research web page) may be made publicly available on websites or repositories, such as the Author’s personal website, preprint servers, university networks or primary employer’s institutional websites, third party institutional or subject-based repositories, and conference websites that feature presentations by the Author(s) based on the published article, under the condition that the article is posted in its unaltered Scientific Journal of Maritime Research form, exclusively for non-commercial purposes.
