Household behavioural response to health policy recommendations: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic created an environment where rapidly changing policy interventions and heightened uncertainty substantially influenced individual behavioural responses. This study investigates the relationship between government mobility restrictions and public adherence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia using mobility data and policy stringency indices. Focusing on the timeseries properties of behavioural adjustment, we evaluate whether individual responses converge towards policy objectives over time. In Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Slovenia, individuals initially exhibited stronger mobility reductions than implied by policy measures, consistent with temporary behavioural overreaction and heightened short-run risk sensitivity. In Serbia, behavioural responses initially remained below the level implied by policy restrictions, suggesting delayed behavioural adjustment and limited initial responsiveness to policy signals. More broadly, the findings indicate that behavioural responses to pandemic policy are dynamic, shaped by uncertainty and behavioural inertia, and sensitive to the frequency and complexity of policy changes.