SOCIO-ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF CO₂ EMISSIONS: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS IN BRICS-T COUNTRIES

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and socioeconomic drivers, including human development (HD), education, financial development (FD), and household consumption for the BRICS-T countries from 2001 to 2022.

Methodology: The study discusses both short- and long-run dynamics while accounting for cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries by using the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Data sources include the United Nations and the World Bank hosted databases. Expected years of schooling (EYS) are used as a proxy for educational attainment.

Results: The results indicate significant heterogeneity across the BRICS-T countries. The longrun findings also point to the fact that higher HDI and education levels reduce CO₂ emissions, which shows that sustainable governance and environmental awareness are highly essential for carbon reduction. However, FD has a dual effect, promoting growth as well as carbon-intensive activities. The hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve is supported by the findings which indicate that as household consumption structures evolve toward less carbon-intensive activities (reflecting development), there is an associated adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium.

Conclusion: The findings reveal that correction mechanisms are significant for Brazil, India, South Africa, and Türkiye. The study makes a significant contribution to the literature by offering a sophisticated understanding of the socioeconomic factors influencing CO₂ emissions, emphasizing policy directions geared toward sustainable development. The conclusions of this study would be embedded in strategies for striking an appropriate balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability in emerging economies.