MODERN EVOLUTIONARY CHANGES IN FIELD GOAL SHOOTING PATTERNS WITHIN PROMINENT EUROPEAN BASKETBALL LEAGUES

Abstract

The aims of this study were to identify the evolution of field goal shooting trends within leading European basketball leagues, and the subsequent impact of a change in 3-point line distance on these trends, providing valuable information for coaches and strategists. Data were collected from the 2002-2003 to the 2022-2023 season (21 seasons) from the prominent basketball leagues of Spain, Italy, France, and Greece. The analyzed variables were: 2-point field goals made (2PM), 2-point field goal attempts (2PA), 2-point field goal percentage (2P%), 3-point field goals made (3PM), 3-point field goal attempts (3PA), and 3-point field goal percentage (3P%). One-way repeated-measures ANOVA or Friedman’s test were used to determine evolutionary changes in variables over time. Additionally, comparisons between variables before and after the change in 3-point line distance were also conducted via independent t-tests. Over the past 21 seasons, 3PA and 3PM significantly increased from an average of 20.80 to 25.17 per match. In contrast, 2PA, 2PM, 2P% and 3P% remained unchanged during the same period. Following the change in distance of the 3-point line, 3PA and 3PM increased over 5%, while no change in 3P%, 2PA, 2PM and 2P%. Over the past 21 seasons, there were substantial increases in 3PA and 3PM, especially since the change in 3-point line distance in 2010-2011, without changes in 2-point shooting trends and efficiency (i.e., 2P%, 3P%), within the leading basketball leagues of Europe. Collectively, these results demonstrated substantial evolutionary change in 3-point shooting behavior, requiring offensive and defensive upskilling of athletes and coaches for successful match-play, and potentially informing the development of new training paradigms in modern basketball.

Keywords: trend analysis, match outcomes, males, scoring, team sport