Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis

Ajaz Ayoub; Tahir Ahmad Wani; Abid Sultan

doi:10.3326/

Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis

Authors

Ajaz Ayoub Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3425-5944
Tahir A Wani Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0885-3692
Abid Sultan Department of Agriculture, Statistics & Economics, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar, Srinagar, J&K, India Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3412-0054

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3326/

Keywords:

public debt, economic growth, BRICS, wavelet analysis, emerging nations, COVID-19

Abstract

This study examines the impact of public debt on economic growth in BRIC nations – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – over 1996-2022 using wavelet coherence and cross-wavelet analysis to capture both short-term dynamics and longterm trends. The findings reveal a positive but heterogeneous co-movement between public debt and GDP, intensifying during COVID-19. Russia exhibits short-to-medium-term co-movement, while Brazil, India, and China show mediumto-long-term patterns. In Brazil and Russia, public debt drives growth during economic distress, whereas in India and China, growth leads to debt accumulation. Granger causality tests confirm the directionality of these relationships, supporting the robustness of the wavelet-based results. The study highlights the need for tailored debt management strategies aligned with country-specific economic conditions to support sustained and inclusive growth.

Downloads

Published

2025-09-03

Issue

Vol. 49 No. 3 (2025)

Section

Articles

License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

If accepted for publication, the authors will be asked to sign a Licence to Publish. Authors retain the copyright on the papers published in PSE but grant the right of publication to the journal.

Authors must obtain the right to use copyright material (e.g. maps, drawings, literary quotes, lyrics) from its owner before publishing the paper in PSE.

PSE is an Open Access Journal licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non/Commercial 4.0 International License, which permits non-commercial use and redistribution, as long as the licensed work is passed along unchanged and in whole, with credit to PSE as its original publisher.

The authors can make the results of their accepted papers available before they are published in PSE on preprint platforms, blogs, and other informal communication channels by providing a link to the PSE website and noting that the manuscript will be published in PSE.

For complete information on copyright, please see Ethical guidelines for publication in PSE

How to Cite

Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis. (2025). Public Sector Economics - Submission Site, 49(3), 369-393. https://doi.org/10.3326/