Ferry Traffic Dynamics: Case Study on the Most Profitable Ferry Routes in the Republic of Croatia

Abstract

Ferry services are a vital component of regional connectivity, enabling the transport of passengers and vehicles between coastal and island locations. Understanding long-term traffic trends and system behaviour during extraordinary disruptions is essential for sustainable planning and investments in coastal liner shipping. This study analyses passenger and vehicle traffic on six profitable ro-pax ferry routes in Croatia from 2005 to 2024 with particular emphasis on their robustness and recovery following the CO VID-19 pandemic. The routes were selected based on their classification as profitable in the latest official reports from the Ministry of the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure, and the Agency for Coastal Liner Maritime Transport, and then the corresponding data were compiled for the observed period. Long-term trends were examined using descriptive statistics and linear regression models for the pre-pandemic period (2005- 2019). System performance under disruption conditions was assessed using three complementary indicators: robustness during disruption, recovery time, and recovery ratio. The results show that most routes exhibited stable pre-pandemic growth, with average annual increases of 2-5% for passengers and 0.5-4.5% for vehicles. Most routes also demonstrated relatively high resilience during and after the pandemic disruption. Vehicle traffic proved more resilient and recovered more quickly than passenger traffic, while passenger demand was more sensitive to extraordinary circumstances. Although route recovery patterns were broadly  similar, the Porozina-Brestova route was an exception, with a significant negative pre-pandemic trend in vehicle traffic and no full post-pandemic recovery by 2024. By integrating trend analysis with robustness and recovery assessment, this paper provides enhanced insights relevant to fleet planning, modernization, capacity optimization, and long-term investment decisions, and contributes to the evaluation of resilience in coastal maritime transport systems.